ATLANTA — In a startling measure of just how widely a new disease can spread, researchers accurately plotted swine flu’s course around the world by tracking airplane travel from Mexico.
The research was based on an analysis of flight data from March and April last year, which showed more than 2 million people flew from Mexico to more than 1,000 cities worldwide. Researchers said patterns of departures from Mexico in those months varies little from year to year; swine flu began its spread in March and April this year.
Passengers traveled to 164 countries, but four out of five of those went to the United States. That fits with the path of the epidemic a year later. The findings were reported Monday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The research shows promise in forecasting how a new contagion might unfold, indicated one government health official who praised the work.
"We share a common interest in this issue: If we map the global airline distribution network, can we anticipate, once a virus emerges, where it is likely to show up next?” asked Dr. Martin Cetron of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He leads CDC’s division of global migration and quarantine.
The new swine flu virus was first reported in the United States in mid-April, but the first large outbreak was in Mexico at about the same time. Health officials believe cases of the new virus were circulating in Mexico in March.
90 percent match
The study showed the majority of passengers flew to the United States, with Canada a distant second and France a more distant third.
More than 90 percent of the time, Khan and his colleagues accurately matched air traffic volumes to which countries did and did not suffer swine flu outbreaks as a result of air traffic.
by the associated press
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